What are your theoretical performance?
This page shows 4 methods to estimate theoretical times
at different distances based on a
performance at a distance. In one case it is also necessary to know sex and age.
The results can be used as a reference for planning future goals. The lower the difference
between the distance used as a reference
and the distance of which you want to estimate the travel time, and more reliable will
be the calculation. It is therefore not advisable to estimate the theoretical time
of a marathon, for example, by using the time of a 10 km, but rather that of a
half marathon, or better the average of 2-3 recent half marathons.
A table will show the theoretical times and the relative pace in min/km. In the last
line the averages of the 4 methods.
An empirical way to estimate the race time is to use the time and the distance of a recent run in the so-called Riegel formula. Pete Riegel proposed the following formula in 1977:
t = tin * (d/din)1.06
with tin and din respectively the time and the distance of the known performance and t is the estimated time to travel the distance d.
This model uses the top 10 times in the world at various distances to compute performances across distances. In his article Cameron states that to obtain the following formulas he used non-linear regression methods:
t = (tin/din) * d *(13.49681 - 0.000030363 * din + 835.7114/din0.7905) / (13.49681 - 0.000030363 * d + 835.7114/d0.7905)
with tin and din respectively the time [s] and the distance [m] of the known performance and t [s] is the estimated time to travel the distance d [m].
VO2 Max (also maximal oxygen consumption or maximal aerobic capacity)
is the maximum rate of oxygen consumption
as measured during incremental exercise.
The estimate based on the VO2 Max first computes
the VO2 Max, given the performance
entered, using the Daniels and Gilbert VO2 Max formula:
VO2 Max = (-4.60 + 0.182258 * v + 0.000104 * v2) / (0.8 + 0.1894393 * e-0.012778*tin + 0.2989558 * e-0.1932605*tin) with v = din/tin, where din the distance in meters
and tin the time in seconds of the performance entered.
VO2max is expressed in millilitres of oxygen per kilogram of body mass
per minute (e.g., ml/(kg·min)).
The same formula is then used in reverse to estimate the times by using the same
VO2 Max found at the beginning. There is no analytic solution to solve
this problem, but the solution can be found numerically (we use the Newton's Method).
This method is the only that uses age and gender of the runner.
With the so called age grading prediction we assume that
you will able to run the same age-graded performance at every distance.
The age-graded score is the percentage ratio between the
world record for your
age and gender and the time of your performance.
So, for example, a 40-year-old
man that runs 10 km in 50 minutes has a age-graded score equal to 55.4%. This value
is used to predit times at differen distances.
| Distance | Unit | Time [hh:mm:ss] | Gender | Age |